Pokémon TCG · xy1 · 2014-02-05
XY — Booster Box (36 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | 25.0% | $36.99 | $9.25 | 100.0% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 75.0% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 9.00 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
13 priced · biggest hits first
$116.58
$85.92
$76.30
$64.20
$41.92
$33.49
$26.70
$16.99
$13.33
$12.53
$10.66
$8.07
$6.44Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blastoise-EX #142 | $116.58 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 1%n=1,416 |
| Venusaur-EX #141 | $85.92 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 2%n=1,011 |
| Xerneas-EX #146 | $76.30 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 2%n=618 |
| Yveltal-EX #144 | $64.20 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,500.00 | +$1,355.81 | 1%n=564 |
| Emolga-EX #143 | $41.92 | $79.99 (Regular) | $284.00 | +$162.10 | 1%n=224 |
| Skarmory-EX #145 | $33.49 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 2%n=282 |
| M Blastoise-EX #30 | $26.70 | $79.99 (Regular) | $392.79 | +$286.10 | 30%n=929 |
| M Venusaur-EX #2 | $16.99 | $79.99 (Regular) | $200.48 | +$103.51 | 18%n=434 |
| Yveltal-EX #79 | $13.33 | $79.99 (Regular) | $165.00 | +$71.68 | 14%n=118 |
| Xerneas-EX #97 | $12.53 | $79.99 (Regular) | $54.17 | $-38.35 | — |
| Blastoise-EX #29 | $10.66 | $79.99 (Regular) | $82.57 | $-8.08 | 26%n=382 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -78.0% market ROI pays for.
NO PRIMARY DATA EXISTS FOR THIS ERA. A dedicated 2026 research pass across five search angles found no counted, sample-sized pull-rate study for ANY XY set. The most-cited community source, PokeBeach's 'English Booster Box Pull Rates' thread, is a stream of self-reported single-box tallies with no maintained running total, no spreadsheet and no statistical write-up - anecdotes, not a study. theexpectedvalue.com, the natural candidate, publishes ZERO per-pack rates for any pre-2020 set as a matter of stated policy, because the odds were never officially disclosed. The rates below are therefore a MODEL, not a measurement: EX ~1:6 packs, full-art ultra rare ~1:12, secret rare ~1:72, folded onto this set's tiers as ultra_rare 0.25/pack and hyper_rare 0.014/pack. Treat them as the site's own estimate. They are the least-evidenced numbers on the site and the ones most likely to be wrong; a set here reading close to break-even should be read as 'unknown', not as a finding. BREAK cards sit outside EV. Neither Wizards of the Coast nor The Pokemon Company has ever published odds for any set of this period, so there is no authoritative figure to calibrate against.
Market price history
4 days · 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-25Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.