Pokémon TCG · swsh11 · 2022-09-09
Lost Origin — Ultra-Premium Collection — Charizard (16 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | 8.6% | $19.11 | $1.65 | 76.5% | |
| Hyper Rare | 2.1% | $30.20 | $0.62 | 28.4% | |
| Double Rare | 12.4% | $1.63 | $0.20 | 88.1% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 76.9% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 3.70 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
24 priced · biggest hits first
$810.98
$198.97Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon VMAX #215 | $2,217.83 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $4,263.77 | +$1,696.94 | 69%n=30,957 |
| Rayquaza VMAX #218 | $1,172.80 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $2,763.39 | +$1,241.59 | 68%n=21,990 |
| Gengar VMAX #271 | $970.61 | $149.00 (Express) | $2,418.30 | +$1,298.69 | 53%n=27,406 |
| Giratina V #186 | $810.98 | $349.00 (Super Express) | $3,613.33 | +$2,453.35 | 41%n=23,872 |
| Lugia V #186 | $507.99 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,327.17 | +$739.19 | 55%n=46,411 |
| Dragonite V #192 | $506.60 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,161.64 | +$575.06 | 51%n=20,941 |
| Rayquaza V #194 | $450.82 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,375.08 | +$844.27 | 51%n=18,903 |
| Leafeon VMAX #205 | $385.77 | $79.99 (Regular) | $615.98 | +$150.23 | 72%n=15,768 |
| Sylveon VMAX #212 | $372.50 | $79.99 (Regular) | $653.50 | +$201.02 | 72%n=19,606 |
| Umbreon V #189 | $364.86 | $79.99 (Regular) | $1,144.88 | +$700.04 | 43%n=19,447 |
| Blaziken VMAX #201 | $359.13 | $79.99 (Regular) | $719.91 | +$280.80 | 66%n=10,478 |
| Espeon VMAX #270 | $323.66 | $79.99 (Regular) | $710.56 | +$306.91 | 60%n=20,883 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -92.8% market ROI pays for.
PRIMARY MEASURED STUDY: the TCGplayer Authentication Center opened more than 8,000 Lost Origin packs (September 2022) and published per-pack rates. Their figures: Ultra Rare 19.95% overall = normal V 11.63% (1 in 9), VMAX/VSTAR 4.42% (1 in 23), full-art V 1.98% (1 in 51), full-art Trainer 1.42% (1 in 70), alt-art V 0.50% (1 in 201); Radiant Rare 5.01% (1 in 20); Secret Rare 2.05% (1 in 49) = rainbow 1.28% + gold 0.76%; Trainer Gallery 12.31%. Mapped onto this catalog's tiers by INSPECTING which cards each tier holds. double_rare (15 cards) = the 12 normal V PLUS the 3 Radiant Pokemon (Radiant Hisuian Sneasler/Steelix/Gardevoir), so it takes 11.63 + 5.01 = 16.64%. CORRECTION 2026-08-25: this tier previously carried 11.63%, the plain-V rate alone -- the three Radiant cards sat in the tier with their 5.01% slot uncounted, which understated the tier by 5.01 percentage points and understated this set's EV. ultra_rare (32 cards) = plain VMAX/VSTAR plus the #172-196 full-art, alt-art and Trainer range = 19.95 - 11.63 = 8.32%. hyper_rare (21 cards) = the #197+ rainbow and gold range = 2.05%. KNOWN CONSERVATIVE GAP: the 12.31% Trainer Gallery subset (TG01-TG30) is not carried in this catalog, so roughly 12 percentage points of pack contents are unmodelled and this set's EV is UNDERSTATED.
- ! Blended EV: EV is the sum of each modelled pack's own-set EV (1.3333× Sword & Shield, 1.3333× Rebel Clash, 1.3333× Darkness Ablaze, 1.3333× Vivid Voltage, 1.3333× Battle Styles, 1.3333× Chilling Reign, 1.3333× Evolving Skies, 1.3333× Fusion Strike, 1.3333× Brilliant Stars, 1.3333× Astral Radiance, 1.3333× Lost Origin, 1.3333× Silver Tempest). Published breakdowns attribute 15.999599999999996 of the 16 packs; the remaining 0.00040000000000439684 aren't specified, so they're omitted. Guaranteed promo/exclusive cards aren't modelled either, so EV understates the product.
Market price history
One data point so far ($554.09 on 2026-08-25). The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.