Pokémon TCG · swsh10 · 2022-05-27
Astral Radiance — Booster Pack
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 17.5% | $1.41 | $0.25 | 17.5% | |
| Ultra Rare | 7.3% | $16.15 | $1.17 | 7.3% | |
| Hyper Rare | 2.1% | $7.82 | $0.16 | 2.0% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 73.1% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 0.27 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
34 priced · biggest hits first
$195.90
$89.69
$77.96
$62.65
$34.67
$27.18
$23.80
$18.55
$17.12
$15.44
$14.71
$12.45
$11.60
$10.87
$9.59
$9.21
$9.10
$8.78
$8.57
$8.56
$8.26
$7.91
$7.69
$7.52
$6.79
$6.34
$5.90
$5.90
$5.88
$5.48
$5.33
$5.30
$5.29
$5.01Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machamp V #172 | $195.90 | $79.99 (Regular) | $418.39 | +$142.50 | 53%n=10,333 |
| Origin Forme Palkia V #167 | $89.69 | $79.99 (Regular) | $345.52 | +$175.84 | 52%n=11,180 |
| Beedrill V #161 | $77.96 | $79.99 (Regular) | $192.57 | +$34.63 | 58%n=7,676 |
| Origin Forme Dialga V #177 | $62.65 | $79.99 (Regular) | $203.62 | +$60.98 | 52%n=10,700 |
| Hisuian Sneasler V #175 | $34.67 | $79.99 (Regular) | $97.58 | $-17.08 | 50%n=2,239 |
| Hisuian Lilligant V #163 | $27.18 | $79.99 (Regular) | $105.14 | $-2.03 | 56%n=2,883 |
| Jirachi V #170 | $23.80 | $79.99 (Regular) | $240.61 | +$136.82 | 58%n=786 |
| Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR #198 | $18.55 | $79.99 (Regular) | $72.56 | $-25.98 | 61%n=740 |
| Machamp VMAX #194 | $17.12 | $79.99 (Regular) | $118.69 | +$21.59 | 70%n=904 |
| Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR #192 | $15.44 | $79.99 (Regular) | $79.15 | $-16.28 | 61%n=807 |
| Hisuian Typhlosion VSTAR #193 | $14.71 | $79.99 (Regular) | $100.00 | +$5.31 | 61%n=756 |
| Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR #210 | $12.45 | $79.99 (Regular) | $95.02 | +$2.58 | 62%n=1,140 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -84.5% market ROI pays for.
PRIMARY MEASURED STUDY, read directly from the primary article (Peter Day, TCGplayer Authentication Center, for the 2022-05-27 release): more than 8,000 Astral Radiance packs opened. Their published figures: Ultra Rare 20.03% = normal V 12.77% (1 in 8), VMAX/VSTAR 3.47% (1 in 29), full-art V 2.13% (1 in 47), full-art Trainer 1.08% (1 in 93), alt-art V 0.74% (1 in 135); Secret Rare 2.05% (1 in 49) = rainbow 1.28% + gold 0.76%; Trainer Gallery 12.58%. Mapped by inspecting tier membership: ultra_rare = 20.03 - 12.77 = 7.26%; hyper_rare = 2.05%. ONE BORROWED NUMBER, STATED PLAINLY: this catalog's double_rare tier (22 cards) holds the 19 normal V PLUS 3 Radiant Pokemon (Radiant Heatran/Greninja/Hawlucha), but TCGplayer's Astral Radiance table has NO Radiant row -- this was the set that introduced Radiants and they did not break the rate out. The same Authentication Center measured Radiant at 5.01% in Lost Origin and 4.55% in Silver Tempest, the sets either side of this one with the identical Radiant slot; the midpoint 4.78% is used here, so double_rare = 12.77 + 4.78 = 17.55%. Any true value inside that measured 4.55-5.01 bracket moves double_rare by at most 0.23pp. The remaining tiers are measured directly. KNOWN CONSERVATIVE GAP: the 12.58% Trainer Gallery subset is not carried, so this set's EV is UNDERSTATED.
Market price history
24 days · 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-25Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.