Pokémon TCG · sv1 · 2023-03-31
Scarlet & Violet — Booster Box (36 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 13.5% | $0.98 | $0.13 | 99.5% | |
| Illustration Rare | 7.5% | $18.24 | $1.37 | 94.0% | |
| Ultra Rare | 6.5% | $3.46 | $0.22 | 91.0% | |
| Special Illustration Rare | 3.0% | $18.73 | $0.56 | 66.7% | |
| Hyper Rare | 1.8% | $5.53 | $0.10 | 48.9% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 67.6% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 11.66 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
41 priced · biggest hits first
$71.69
$58.44
$42.99
$42.12
$39.22
$31.25
$24.50
$24.35
$24.35
$22.42
$21.92
$19.93
$16.73
$15.59
$15.48
$14.06
$13.92
$13.68
$12.95
$11.28
$9.60
$9.35
$9.23
$8.32
$8.04
$7.98
$7.86
$7.21
$6.42
$6.40
$6.13
$6.11
$6.10
$5.93
$5.91
$5.90
$5.72
$5.64
$5.53
$5.34
$5.09Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardevoir ex #245 | $71.69 | $79.99 (Regular) | $232.25 | +$80.58 | 37%n=18,231 |
| Drowzee #210 | $58.44 | $79.99 (Regular) | $949.69 | +$811.26 | 14%n=11,955 |
| Ralts #211 | $42.99 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 10%n=7,695 |
| Kirlia #212 | $42.12 | $79.99 (Regular) | $645.11 | +$523.00 | 14%n=6,879 |
| Slowpoke #204 | $39.22 | $79.99 (Regular) | $690.99 | +$571.79 | 11%n=7,575 |
| Riolu #215 | $31.25 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 14%n=7,176 |
| Miraidon ex #244 | $24.50 | $79.99 (Regular) | $149.92 | +$45.44 | 41%n=9,270 |
| Miriam #251 | $24.35 | $79.99 (Regular) | $121.92 | +$17.58 | 34%n=17,112 |
| Fidough #213 | $24.35 | $79.99 (Regular) | $344.39 | +$240.06 | 11%n=2,118 |
| Koraidon ex #247 | $22.42 | $79.99 (Regular) | $137.58 | +$35.17 | 42%n=7,661 |
| Wiglett #206 | $21.92 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 9%n=1,263 |
| Greavard #214 | $19.93 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | 11%n=3,280 |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -70.3% market ROI pays for.
Card Shop Live published per-rarity hit COUNTS from 1,728 Scarlet & Violet Base packs they opened themselves: Double Rare 234, Ultra Rare 112, Illustration Rare 130, Special Illustration Rare 52, Hyper Rare 32. Probabilities below are those counts divided by 1,728, not rounded figures quoted from elsewhere. Caveat: this is one retailer's own openings, not a multi-source aggregate, so it may carry allocation bias; the sample is large and the counts are published, which is why it is rated high rather than medium. The Pokemon Company publishes no official odds and Card Shop Live explicitly says to use the data with caution. No ACE SPEC slot existed in SV Base (ACE SPEC returned in Paradox Rift), so no tier is listed for it.
Market price history
25 days · 2026-07-29 → 2026-08-25Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.