Pokémon TCG · sm1 · 2017-02-03
Sun & Moon — Elite Trainer Box (8 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | 15.4% | $10.27 | $1.58 | 73.7% | |
| Hyper Rare | 2.3% | $24.30 | $0.55 | 16.8% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 82.3% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 1.41 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
24 priced · biggest hits first
$116.57
$52.27
$50.37
$42.39
$31.37
$27.85
$26.77
$25.20
$17.12
$16.66
$14.69
$14.06
$12.37
$10.14
$9.62
$9.43
$9.23
$9.20
$8.78
$7.69
$6.97
$6.68
$6.25
$6.03Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon-GX #154 | $116.57 | $79.99 (Regular) | $896.72 | +$700.17 | 25%n=4,190 |
| Umbreon-GX #142 | $52.27 | $79.99 (Regular) | $445.69 | +$313.43 | 28%n=4,327 |
| Espeon-GX #152 | $50.37 | $79.99 (Regular) | $620.20 | +$489.84 | 24%n=2,936 |
| Lillie #147 | $42.39 | $79.99 (Regular) | $342.99 | +$220.62 | 27%n=7,706 |
| Espeon-GX #140 | $31.37 | $79.99 (Regular) | $286.90 | +$175.54 | 31%n=2,409 |
| Ultra Ball #161 | $27.85 | $79.99 (Regular) | $120.71 | +$12.88 | 25%n=808 |
| Lapras-GX #151 | $26.77 | $79.99 (Regular) | $430.51 | +$323.76 | 27%n=1,005 |
| Umbreon-GX #80 | $25.20 | $79.99 (Regular) | $553.47 | +$448.29 | 25%n=4,039 |
| Lunala-GX #153 | $17.12 | $79.99 (Regular) | $226.28 | +$129.18 | 36%n=787 |
| Solgaleo-GX #155 | $16.66 | $79.99 (Regular) | $205.42 | +$108.77 | 31%n=923 |
| Tauros-GX #156 | $14.69 | $79.99 (Regular) | $199.82 | +$105.14 | 38%n=608 |
| Psychic Energy #162 | $14.06 | $79.99 (Regular) | $79.79 | $-14.26 | — |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -92.3% market ROI pays for.
PRIMARY MEASUREMENT, with caveats stated. The Elite Fourum community tally counted n=7,020 Sun & Moon base packs: overall hit rate (anything above a Holo Rare) 17.65% +/-0.89% = 1 in 5.67 packs, broken out as Holo GX 11.15% (1 in 9), full-art Ultra Rare 4.22% (1 in 24), Rainbow Rare 1.47% (1 in 68), Secret Rare 0.81% (1 in 123). Mapped onto this set's two normalized tiers by what each holds: ultra_rare = Holo GX plus the full-art Ultra Rares = 11.15+4.22 = 15.37%; hyper_rare = the #150+ rainbow and gold secret range = 1.47+0.81 = 2.28%. The two tiers sum to 17.65%, exactly the study's stated overall hit rate, which is the cross-check that confirms the mapping. WHY THIS IS MEDIUM AND NOT HIGH: unlike the TCGplayer Authentication Center studies used for Evolving Skies and Lost Origin, this was counted from YouTube/Twitch opening videos rather than from sealed product the counter bought, it blends booster boxes with Elite Trainer Boxes and prerelease kits, and the author lost the raw dataset so it cannot be audited. Video sourcing carries an unquantified UPWARD bias (uploaders choose which openings to publish, and creator-supplied product may be pre-sorted), so if this number is wrong it most likely overstates. It nonetheless passes an internal integer check - back-solving each tier against n=7,020 yields whole card counts (783 GX, 296 UR, 103 Rainbow, 57 Secret) - which is strong evidence of a genuine tally rather than a figure written backwards from a percentage. This REPLACES an unsourced era aggregate that put ultra_rare at 18% and hyper_rare at 3%.
Market price history
2 days · 2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.