Pokémon TCG · gem-pack-4
Gem Pack 4 — Booster Pack
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cn Chase | 7.2% | $8.96 | $0.65 | 7.2% | |
| Bulk / regular cards | 92.8% | ≈ $0.01 | — | — |
Expected hits per product: 0.07 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). The Bulk / regular cards row is the rest of a pack — commons, uncommons and plain rares worth about a cent — shown so the odds add up to the whole pack.
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
26 priced · biggest hits first
$29.25
$13.59
$13.57
$11.89
$11.64
$11.00
$10.38
$9.25
$9.09
$9.00
$9.00
$8.84
$8.14
$8.00
$8.00
$7.25
$7.18
$6.99
$6.20
$6.13
$6.00
$6.00
$5.38
$5.35
$5.01
$5.00Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Special-treatment cards
1 shown · not counted in EV
$207.51Premium special-art printings — showcase/borderless prints, ultra-secret SARs and the like. They’re the set’s headline chases but pulled far below any rate public data quantifies, so they’re shown here for reference and deliberately excluded from the EV above.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eevee #407 | $29.25 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Sawsbuck #1807 | $13.59 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Deerling #1707 | $13.57 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Litten #2007 | $11.89 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Cinccino #1607 | $11.64 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Minccino #1507 | $11.00 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Lickitung #207 | $10.38 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -93.1% market ROI pays for.
Simplified Chinese Gem Pack (宝石包). THE ODD IS OFFICIAL: Chinese law requires publishers to disclose gacha probabilities, and the disclosed three-star (★★★) figure works out to ~0.0724 per pack (~1.3 per 18-pack box). That is a publisher-stated number, not a community estimate — the strongest evidence class on this site. OFFICIAL PACK STRUCTURE (confirmed 2026-08-24 against the Chinese Pokémon site and 神奇宝贝百科): a pack is FOUR cards — three of ● or ◆ rarity, plus exactly ONE card that is ★, ★★ or ★★★. So the hit slot fires in EVERY pack; ★★★ takes 7.24% of it and ★/★★ fill the remaining ~92.76%. WHY ONLY ★★★ IS PRICED INTO EV. The ★/★★ and ●/◆ cards are real and we hold prices for all of them, but those prices are not realizable value: they cluster on eBay listing points rather than tracking rarity — $1.99 is the single most common price across 58 cards, 417 of 623 low-grade cards sit at or under $2.00, and ★ cards average $2.01 against ◆ cards at $2.02, i.e. the star grade barely moves the price at the low end. Those figures are dominated by shipping and minimum listing prices, so counting three ●/◆ plus a ★/★★ per pack at face value would add roughly $6-8 a pack — more than $100 on an 18-pack box that sells for well under that. Rather than inflate EV with money nobody can realise, only the ★★★ tier is modelled, and the pack/box EV is therefore deliberately CONSERVATIVE and understates the true figure by the (small, genuinely realisable) part of the lower grades. The ★★★ chase pool is the OFFICIAL three-star grade read from tcg.mik.moe (Cryst's Cards Database), not a price guess — every ★★★ card except the single ultra-secret SAR each set carries (itself ★★★ but pulled far below the flat rate; kept out of EV and shown in the gallery so a uniform tier cannot over-value it). Uniform-within-★★★. Prices are PriceCharting (eBay-sold). CONFIDENCE stays LOW despite the official odd: what is official is the ★★★ probability, while the single-tier, uniform-value model around it remains an approximation.
Market price history
No history yet. The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.