One Piece TCG · OP-15 · 2026-02-03
Adventure on Kami's Island — Booster Pack
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leader | 50.0% | $0.13 | $0.07 | 50.0% | |
| Super Rare | 33.3% | $3.11 | $1.04 | 33.3% | |
| Alternate Art | 8.3% | $38.82 | $3.22 | 8.3% | |
| Secret Rare | 4.2% | $11.79 | $0.49 | 4.2% | |
| Manga Rare | 0.1% | $925.94 | $0.83 | 0.1% |
Expected hits per product: 0.96 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates). A One Piece pack is 12 cards: on average about 1.0 is one of the cards above, and the other ~11 are commons, uncommons and rares worth about a cent. (These odds describe that one notable card, so they don't sum to 100%.)
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
23 priced · biggest hits first
$925.94
$173.62
$100.17
$82.26
$63.98
$60.07
$56.61
$38.00
$34.99
$33.44
$28.29
$26.99
$25.49
$25.21
$18.87
$15.50
$13.57
$10.33
$10.00
$7.88
$7.84
$7.02
$5.15Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Is it worth grading?
PSA US fees, approx · Jul 2026What a PSA 10 sells for vs the raw price plus PSA's fee — the upside if the card grades a 10. The odds of actually getting a 10 are a separate column, still pending.
| Card | Raw | PSA fee | PSA 10 value | Net if 10 | Chance of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enel #OP15-118 | $925.94 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Nami #OP15-086 | $173.62 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Monkey.D.Luffy #OP15-098 | $100.17 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Lightning Dragon #OP15-077 | $82.26 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Brook #OP15-022 | $63.98 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Gum-Gum Golden Rifle #OP15-116 | $60.07 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Monkey.D.Luffy #OP15-119 | $56.61 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Mamaragan #OP15-078 | $38.00 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Brook #OP15-032 | $34.99 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Monkey.D.Luffy #OP15-092 | $33.44 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Lucy #OP15-002 | $28.29 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
| Enel #OP15-118 | $26.99 | $79.99 (Regular) | — | — | — |
Net if 10= PSA 10 value − raw − fee, the gain assuming a perfect grade (an upper bound — most cards won't 10). Chance of 10is this card's own PSA population — of every copy graded, the share that came back a 10 — and it drives the graded EV toggle instead of one flat assumption. Read it as a ceiling, not a coin flip: it counts cards people CHOSE to submit, which skews toward good copies, and a card pulled from a pack today may fare worse. A “—” means too few graded copies to quote. PSA 10 prices come from Scrydex and PokemonPriceTracker. Fees exclude shipping and use the cheapest PSA tier for each card's declared (graded) value. PSA paused its cheaper Value tiers in June 2026 under a grading backlog, so Regular ($79.99) is the current floor — grading a card much under ~$100 rarely makes sense.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -25.8% market ROI pays for.
Community-aggregated advertised pull rates for a standard 24-pack One Piece booster box, from TCGTalk's box-pull-rate guide (2026): Leader ~1 per 2 packs (~12/box), Super Rare ~1 per 3 packs (~8/box), Parallel/Alternate Art ~2/box (~1 per 12 packs), Secret Rare ~1/box (~1 per 24 packs), Manga Rare ~1 per 2-6 cases (~1 in 576-1,728 packs). Bandai does not publish official odds, and this source discloses no sample size, so this table is capped at LOW confidence by design. The uniform-within-tier assumption is especially rough for One Piece: the Alternate Art tier spans sub-$5 commons to $100+ chase cards, so per-card odds within a tier are indicative only. Prices blend Scrydex (TCGplayer market) and PriceCharting (eBay-sold); cards without a matched price are excluded from their tier average, never counted as $0. The Special (SP) tier is deliberately NOT modelled in EV: SP cards are priced by a single source (TCGplayer market via Scrydex) with no second source to cross-check, and thin-market figures proved unreliable, so counting them would distort box EV. They remain in the catalog.
Market price history
5 days · 2026-07-29 → 2026-08-25Daily median of eBay-sold (PriceCharting) sealed prices. Updates each time the price job runs.