Magic: The Gathering · ust · 2017-12-08
Unstable — Booster Box (36 packs)
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 86.5% | $0.12 | $0.10 | 100.0% | |
| Mythic Rare | 13.5% | $0.69 | $0.09 | 99.5% |
Expected hits per product: 36.00 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates).
What are the odds you profit?
EV is the average; this is the distribution. 20,000 simulated openings of this exact product, using the same sources, odds and prices as everything above.
Same assumptions as the EV: odds are uniform within each tier (real sets short-print their biggest chases, so true odds are usually a touch worse than this), cards sell at today's market price, and selling costs nothing. Read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
Chase cards
1 priced · biggest hits first
$3.08Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
How many packs for…
No number of packs guarantees it — that is what a -94.2% market ROI pays for.
Magic booster EV, modeled on the ~1 rare-or-mythic-per-pack structure common to Draft, Set and Play Boosters: rare 0.865 / mythic 0.135 (mythic ~1 in 7-8), plus ~7 commons + ~3 uncommons per pack. WotC discloses booster collation, so this beats a pure community estimate, but it is still MODELLED and capped LOW: (1) special treatments (showcase/borderless/extended, and pre-2024 alt-frames) are folded into the flat common/uncommon/rare/mythic tiers with a uniform-within-tier assumption, which OVERSTATES the odds of the specific expensive alt-treatment prints; (2) prices are the NON-FOIL TCGplayer market price (via Scryfall) — a pack's guaranteed slots are all non-foil; the single foil slot's extra value is not added to EV (conservative); (3) for Play Boosters the wildcard + foil slots add ~0.2 more rares/mythics per pack that are NOT modelled (conservative); (4) older sets used Draft Boosters (more commons, foil ~1 in 3-4 packs) - the rare/mythic value driver is the same but the rest is approximate. Only cards Scryfall marks booster:true are counted (no promos/box-toppers/Commander cards). Net: a rough, indicative pack EV, not a precise one.
Market price history
No history yet. The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.