Counter-Strike 2 · shadow-case
Shadow Case — Shadow Case
Where the value comes from
| Tier | Odds / pack | Avg card value | EV / pack | Priced | P(≥1) / product |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.9% | $0.00 | $0.00 | 79.9% | |
| Restricted | 16.0% | $0.00 | $0.00 | 16.0% | |
| Classified | 3.2% | $0.00 | $0.00 | 3.2% | |
| Covert | 0.6% | $0.00 | $0.00 | 0.6% | |
| Rare Special (Knife / Glove) | 0.3% | $0.00 | $0.00 | 0.3% |
Expected hits per product: 1.00 (counting every tier the pull-rate table enumerates).
Chase cards
No priced chase cards.
Each tile: card value (top-right), then the odds of pulling that exact cardfrom a single pack — shown as “1 in N packs” and as a percentage (the same number, two ways). Per-card odds assume every card in a tier is equally likely — no public data quantifies short prints. See methodology.
Shadow Case: Official Counter-Strike 2 weapon-case drop odds — the same for every case: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, Rare Special (knife/glove) 0.26%. These are Valve's disclosed rates, not a community estimate, so confidence is OFFICIAL — the strongest tier. Within a tier every skin is equally likely; the wear (Factory New … Battle-Scarred) and ~10% StatTrak sub-distribution is modelled at the price layer, not here.
- ! No priced cards for rarity "mil_spec" — its EV contribution is counted as zero.
- ! No priced cards for rarity "restricted" — its EV contribution is counted as zero.
- ! No priced cards for rarity "classified" — its EV contribution is counted as zero.
- ! No priced cards for rarity "covert" — its EV contribution is counted as zero.
- ! No priced cards for rarity "rare_special" — its EV contribution is counted as zero.
- ! No sealed price or MSRP available — ROI cannot be computed.
Market price history
No history yet. The chart fills in as the daily price job accumulates snapshots.